Field Notes from a Catastrophe -- Book Review
Field Notes from a Catastrophe: Man, Nature, and Climate Change.
By Elizabeth Kolbert. New York: Bloomsbury. 2006. 225 pp.
This is a well written, engaging introduction to the many dimensions of climate change and the urgency of its impact upon the world. Told through anecdotes, first hand observations, interviews with experts, and references to academic studies, it is very readable and at the same time an authoritative, reliable source. It was published in 2006 so it is substantially out of date in many respects. Climate change is moving so rapidly at this point that almost anything written before June of 2012 is out of date. I find myself looking for up to the minute updates. Kolbert herself would probably be the first to acknowledge that things have dramatically changed in the last six years. She pointed out numerous times throughout her book how quickly things were developing. What looked urgent in 2006 has become critical, if not fatal, by now. The situation is totally out of hand. I find myself wondering how long we have left: twenty years? Twenty-five, maybe? Will there still be a San Francisco ten years from now? What will be the process of its undoing? This is what I am worrying about. It bothers me day and night.
The ice is melting. The ice is melting. It is melting faster than it ever has before. You can watch the charts, the maps, on a daily basis and see it. It is melting much faster than anyone ever predicted. Kolbert's first chapter recounts her trip to Alaska and her visits with climate experts and native peoples whose lives depend on the sea ice. She made an excursion with Vladimir Romanovsky, a permafrost expert at the University of Alaska, to several monitoring sites where he is keeping track of the permafrost melt in Alaska. He showed her around and pointed out how the permafrost is melting and the permafrost melt will release more greenhouse gas into the atmosphere. She touched briefly on the subject of methane (p. 21-22). It was an issue at that time, but not pressing. Romanovsky told her, "I think it's just a time bomb, just waiting for a little warmer conditions." That time bomb is starting to go off. Kolbert refers to models that predicted the Arctic sea ice would disappear by 2080. She pointed out how they had to be revised to "decades." I just heard a report on the radio within the last week that the Polar Ice Cap had reached an all time minimum. The report said that the Arctic may be ice free during part of the summer "in a couple of decades." How about next year: 2013? How about this year by the end of September? It is possible. The ice extent and volume are falling precipitously. The water temperature in the Arctic Ocean is several degrees above normal and that is what is melting the ice so rapidly. The Polar Ice Cap has been in place continuously for about 120,000 years, waxing and waning during winter and summer, but always present and a stabilizer of the earth's climate. But it has been losing about 100,000 square kilometers of ice per day for the last two months. It has reduced itself by one half since the beginning of June. Paul Beckwith, of the University of Ottawa, believes the sea ice will be gone by September 30 of this year.1 It doesn't matter so much if he is turns out to be right or wrong, the fact that his prediction has plausibility is dire enough.
If the Arctic sea ice does disappear, even for a little bit, all sorts of consequences will ensue. But let's not worry about that for now. What it means is that the process of the earth's warming, which we have all been told about for years, and been shown charts and models of all manner of catastrophes that will occur long in the future if we don't start doing something about it today, has accelerated to an astonishing pace, and the long dreaded catastrophes that many people believed would never happen are on our doorstep NOW, and will be breaking upon us very soon in ways that will be breathtaking. This has really grabbed me by the throat over the last month. I'm frightened. I've had a good long run here in San Francisco for the last twenty-seven years. I hate to see it come to an end. I hate to see this great, beautiful city collapse. Kolbert discusses a number of civilizations that collapsed in a short period of time due to abrupt climate change: the Akkadians, the Mayans, the Tiwanaku of the Andes Mountains, and the Old Kingdom of Egypt. It is not unprecedented. We may be in line to be the latest and most spectacular of these abrupt demises. Maybe someone out there can convince me that this is all a hoax, that it's not as bad as all that, that it's just a fluke, an anomaly that will naturally correct itself and everything will soon be all right, and I will then appear foolish and alarmist and crazy. I would love for that to be the outcome. I am not afraid to laugh at myself. It's a lot better to be embarrassed than dead. But I'm afraid we're in real trouble, and we're going to start feeling it soon.
If the Arctic sea ice does disappear, even for a little bit, all sorts of consequences will ensue. But let's not worry about that for now. What it means is that the process of the earth's warming, which we have all been told about for years, and been shown charts and models of all manner of catastrophes that will occur long in the future if we don't start doing something about it today, has accelerated to an astonishing pace, and the long dreaded catastrophes that many people believed would never happen are on our doorstep NOW, and will be breaking upon us very soon in ways that will be breathtaking. This has really grabbed me by the throat over the last month. I'm frightened. I've had a good long run here in San Francisco for the last twenty-seven years. I hate to see it come to an end. I hate to see this great, beautiful city collapse. Kolbert discusses a number of civilizations that collapsed in a short period of time due to abrupt climate change: the Akkadians, the Mayans, the Tiwanaku of the Andes Mountains, and the Old Kingdom of Egypt. It is not unprecedented. We may be in line to be the latest and most spectacular of these abrupt demises. Maybe someone out there can convince me that this is all a hoax, that it's not as bad as all that, that it's just a fluke, an anomaly that will naturally correct itself and everything will soon be all right, and I will then appear foolish and alarmist and crazy. I would love for that to be the outcome. I am not afraid to laugh at myself. It's a lot better to be embarrassed than dead. But I'm afraid we're in real trouble, and we're going to start feeling it soon.
What has changed all of the equations is the appearance of methane. I'll quote the abstract of a paper that was published in May of 2012 by Katey Walter Anthony in Nature Geoscience.2
Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, accumulates in subsurface hydrocarbon reservoirs, such as coal beds and natural gas deposits. In the Arctic, permafrost and glaciers form a ‘cryosphere cap’ that traps gas leaking from these reservoirs, restricting flow to the atmosphere. With a carbon store of over 1,200 Pg, [petagrams: 1.2 x 1018 grams, or 1200 trillion kilograms] the Arctic geologic methane reservoir is large when compared with the global atmospheric methane pool of around 5 Pg. As such, the Earth’s climate is sensitive to the escape of even a small fraction of this methane. Here, we document the release of 14C-depleted methane to the atmosphere from abundant gas seeps concentrated along boundaries of permafrost thaw and receding glaciers in Alaska and Greenland, using aerial and ground surface survey data and in situ measurements of methane isotopes and flux. We mapped over 150,000 seeps, which we identified as bubble-induced open holes in lake ice. These seeps were characterized by anomalously high methane fluxes, and in Alaska by ancient radiocarbon ages and stable isotope values that matched those of coal bed and thermogenic methane accumulations. Younger seeps in Greenland were associated with zones of ice-sheet retreat since the Little Ice Age. Our findings imply that in a warming climate, disintegration of permafrost, glaciers and parts of the polar ice sheets could facilitate the transient expulsion of 14C-depleted methane trapped by the cryosphere cap.
Put this together with the reports from Eric Kort in Nature Geoscience, April 2012,3 which found methane emanating from remote regions of the Arctic Ocean, and the most disturbing report by the Russian team led by Igor Semiletov in Eastern Siberia4 that found vast plumes of methane of astonishing size coming from the shallow ocean off Eastern Siberia, and it is clear that all previous calculations of the impacts of climate change and the timetables for their occurrence must be drastically revised and moved forward. Indeed, we are seeing that play out before our eyes. The predicted impacts are occurring -- not the mass extinctions -- yet -- and the process is accelerating. It is accelerating by leaps and bounds. This is what has me so upset.
There was a time when we had the capability to influence the process. Not that I ever thought for a minute that we were going to. But Al Gore believed it was possible. With enough leaders like him, we might have had a chance. But we are now losing the capability to influence events, and we are going to ride this wild horse wherever it takes us. Kolbert spends a couple of chapters in her book documenting the stupidity and foolhardiness of the Bush administration's policy on climate change, which was to allow things to get worse without the slightest challenge. She quotes Tony Blair, who tried very hard without success to convince George W. Bush in 2005 that action on the climate was urgent.
"The time to act is now. The emission of greenhouse gases . . . is causing global warming at a rate that began as significant, has become alarming, and is simply unsustainable in the long-term. And by 'long-term' I do not mean centuries ahead. I mean within the lifetime of my children certainly, and possibly within my own. And by 'unsustainable,' I do not mean a phenomenon causing problems of adjustment. I mean a challenge so far-reaching in its impact and irreversible in its destructive power, that it alters radically human existence." (p. 170)
Politics is not my interest or ability. Over the course of my lifetime I have watched American society decline under a continuous succession of dishonest leadership that lacked both vision and goodwill. From Vietnam, to Watergate, to Iran-Contra, the War on Drugs, NAFTA, 9/11, Iraq, The Banking Crisis, Afghanistan, never mind the climate, the lesson of my lifetime is that the political leadership of this nation is irresponsible and cannot be trusted. So I have little faith that they will address the problem of the climate warming in a constructive, meaningful way. And indeed they are not, as Kolbert documents. So I am a spectator in this arena rather than an activist. I am watching the ship disintegrate and sink with great interest, but without faith or hope.
Once the sea ice is gone, then all the heat that was spent melting the ice will be applied to warming the ocean and melting the Greenland ice sheet. Kolbert has an interesting chapter on Greenland and Iceland, both of which she visited. The Greenland ice sheets are melting also, and the pace of their melting is accelerating. Iceland's glaciers, which have been there for at least two million years, were projected to be gone by 2200 in 2005 (p. 61-2). This was confirmed recently in a study by Helgi Björnsson, of the Institute of Earth Sciences, the University of Iceland.5 Quoting the abstract,
Given plausible scenarios of future climate, the main ice caps in Iceland might vanish in 150 to 200 years. These studies are of international interest for evaluation of sea level rise, fresh water input to the ocean, and Holocene glacier variations. They are also of importance for the Icelandic community due to the glacier’s impact on human activities.
The study is not yet published, so I haven't been able to see the details, but I wonder if Björnsson had considered sharply increased levels of atmospheric methane in his "plausible scenarios of future climate"? I wonder also if the disappearance of the Polar Sea Ice for at least part of the summer might accelerate the melting of Iceland's glaciers beyond the parameters he assumed? His estimate of 150 to 200 years is probably already too optimistic, and the paper is not even in print.
Climate change affects animal populations, particularly in their habitat ranges and their migration patterns. Kolbert documents a number of interesting specific cases, particularly certain butterfly species and the golden toad of Costa Rica, which is now believed to be extinct, a casualty of climate change. Changing climate stirs the relationships between plants and animals. As the climate changes, animals move and change their relations to one another. This includes pests, and diseases, as well as species we depend upon. However, modern society has fragmented the landscape with urbanization, roads, dams, and farms that make it difficult for animals to migrate long distances. Habitats are becoming isolated like islands, limiting their ability to pick up and move when the climate forces them to. (p. 87) Under reasonably conservative models of climate change, a large number of species are destined for extinction. But radical climate change caused by a large infusion of methane into the atmosphere in a relatively short period of time, is not considered by Kolbert or the experts she consulted. It is possible for some living organisms to survive temperatures up to about 115⁰ F for prolonged periods, but not much above that.6 Most humans will not last long in 115 degree heat. Some bacteria can live in temperatures of 300⁰ F. So it has to get pretty hot to kill all life on the planet, but it does not have to get too much hotter than it is right now to have a devastating impact upon the biosphere as we know it.
Over the past two million years, even as the temperature of the earth has swung wildly, it has always remained within certain limits: The planet has often been colder than today, but rarely warmer, and then only slightly. If the earth continues to warm at the current rate, then by the end of this century temperatures will push beyond the "envelope" of natural climate variability. (p. 86)
The key phrase is "continues to warm at the current rate [2005]." The current rate has radically changed with the specter of a jump in the concentration of methane in the atmosphere. This means that we will be pushing this "envelope" much sooner than previously anticipated. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center,
The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during July 2012 was 3.3°F (1.8°C) above the 20th century average, marking the warmest July and all-time warmest month since national records began in 1895. The previous warmest month for the nation was July 1936 when the average U.S. temperature was 77.4°F (25.2°C) .7
The August 2011-July 2012 period was the warmest 12-month period of any 12-months on record for the contiguous U.S., narrowly surpassing the record broken last month for the July 2011-June 2012 period by 0.07°F. The nationally-averaged temperature of 56.1°F was 3.3°F above the long term average. Every state across the contiguous U.S. had warmer than average temperatures for the period, except Washington, which was near average.8
All time high temperatures were recorded all across the central and eastern United States in June 2012 that are not far away from these maximum thresholds of survivability.9 All we need is a spike in temperature that wouldn't have to last too long to take out people, plants, and animals all across the United States in large numbers. Methane can do this. This is the real, imminent danger of methane. Most climate models are based on averages taken over long periods of time. Averages smooth out the peaks and valleys. The nationally averaged temperature between July 2011 and June 2012 was 56.1⁰ F. But there were many recorded temperatures in many places during that time of 105⁰ and above. There were places that had sustained temperatures above 100⁰ F for days on end. It is the peaks and valleys that kill things, particularly the peaks. Short term spikes in temperature that go beyond our threshold of tolerance will wreak havoc on human societies. This is the pressing danger of the appearance of methane. Methane will create these deadly spikes and with increasing frequency.
On August 13, a German expedition left from Reykjavik for Svalbard Island in the Arctic Ocean.10 Svalbard is a site where methane is known to be escaping from the sea floor. The Germans intend to take measurements and investigate. It will be interesting to hear their results. I hope they tell us there is nothing to worry about.
Kolbert's book is a nice overview of the major developments and issues of climate change and includes a useful chronology of the highlights at the end. It is obviously dated, however, given the rapid pace of developments, but it is still one of the better short introductions to the topic I have seen. It will be interesting and readable for the general reader, and I still recommend it as a good primer, but you must keep in mind that many of the worries she expressed which seemed fairly remote at the time of her writing have practically exploded upon us. The situation is more dire and immediate than her book conveys. That is not her fault. Her tone was worrisome and appropriate for the time in which she was writing. However, all of the climate models and predictions require radical revision given the recent escalation in the atmospheric levels of methane. All bets are off now about what will happen, how long it will take, and what can be done about it. Methane is a game changer. And I feel the clock is running out on us.
Notes
5. Björnsson, Helgi (2012) Glaciological research in Iceland: reflections and outlook in the beginning of the 21th century. Presented at the 30th Nordic Geological Winter Meeting in Iceland, January, 2012.
6. Siminovskii, D.; et. al (2005) Cellular tolerance to pulsed heating. SPIE Proceedings, Laser-Tissue Interactions XVI, vol. 5695, BIOS 2005